Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
+11.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play-0.046
- 40.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.180
- 5.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- -4.62CPOE-0.02
- 35.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.58
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 23/44 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 30/41 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 9 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.3%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.32