2021 · Week 13

Final

Giants

New York

QB Mike Glennon

9·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

Total

40

Model margin

+11.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.141EPA / play-0.046
  • 40.2%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.180
  • 5.7%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -4.62CPOE-0.02
  • 35.9%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.58
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5NYG @ MIA16–31MIA
2019 · W15MIA @ NYG20–36NYG
2015 · W14NYG @ MIA31–24NYG
2011 · W8MIA @ NYG17–20NYG
2007 · W8NYG @ MIA13–10NYG
2003 · W5MIA @ NYG23–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIA
NYGQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:43829Punt0–0
NYGQ1 6:58745Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 2:453-1Punt0–0
NYGQ1 0:49616Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 13:121047Field goal3–3
NYGQ2 7:07623Punt3–3
MIAQ2 4:181584Touchdown3–10
NYGQ2 0:2617End of half3–10
MIAQ3 15:0036Punt3–10
NYGQ3 14:00969Field goal6–10
MIAQ3 10:2938Punt6–10
NYGQ3 8:2430Punt6–10
MIAQ3 7:223-9Punt6–10
NYGQ3 5:5738Punt6–10
MIAQ3 4:54419Punt6–10
NYGQ3 3:3365Punt6–10
MIAQ4 14:51761Touchdown6–17
NYGQ4 11:063-8Punt6–17
MIAQ4 10:1134Missed field goal6–17
NYGQ4 8:42925Field goal9–17
MIAQ4 4:59950Field goal9–20
NYGQ4 1:11432Missed field goal9–20
MIAQ4 0:0900End of half9–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon23/4418701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley11555.00
Devontae Booker6366.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram45610
Kenny Golladay35370
Pharoh Cooper23210
Saquon Barkley69190
Kyle Rudolph24180
Devontae Booker44180
Darius Slayton27130
John Ross0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa30/4124420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin15442.90
Salvon Ahmed8232.90
Tua Tagovailoa210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle911900
DeVante Parker55620
Mike Gesicki711460
Albert Wilson48260
Hunter Long1180
Mack Hollins1151
Myles Gaskin2250
Isaiah Ford1121
Durham Smythe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.6%6.4%2.2%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

77.3%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.32