2015 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

31·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.032
  • 44.0%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.12CPOE+1.20
  • 37.1%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.42
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5NYG @ MIA16–31MIA
2021 · W13NYG @ MIA9–20MIA
2019 · W15MIA @ NYG20–36NYG
2011 · W8MIA @ NYG17–20NYG
2007 · W8NYG @ MIA13–10NYG
2003 · W5MIA @ NYG23–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00316Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 13:45519Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 11:091169Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 5:41421Punt3–7
MIAQ1 3:01417Punt3–7
NYGQ1 1:27970Touchdown10–7
MIAQ2 13:00767Touchdown10–14
NYGQ2 10:1034Punt10–14
MIAQ2 8:48620Punt10–14
NYGQ2 5:49620Turnover10–14
MIAQ2 2:5737Field goal10–17
NYGQ2 1:52465Touchdown17–17
MIAQ2 0:4448Turnover on downs17–17
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt17–17
MIAQ3 12:52776Touchdown17–24
NYGQ3 9:37965Touchdown24–24
MIAQ3 5:0138Punt24–24
NYGQ3 3:23822Missed field goal24–24
MIAQ3 0:33622Punt24–24
NYGQ4 11:58296Touchdown31–24
MIAQ4 11:13941Punt31–24
NYGQ4 7:1835Punt31–24
MIAQ4 5:50314Punt31–24
NYGQ4 4:39837End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/3133740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings22813.70
Orleans Darkwa2105.00
Andre Williams331.00
Shane Vereen100.00
Eli Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.791662
Rueben Randle56581
Dwayne Harris55410
Will Tye55301
Rashad Jennings22210
Shane Vereen12100
Orleans Darkwa1160
Hakeem Nicks1150

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/4123610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller12897.42
Ryan Tannehill4246.00
Jay Ajayi5153.00
Jarvis Landry100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry1118990
Kenny Stills23491
Jordan Cameron34350
DeVante Parker25160
Dion Sims35140
Greg Jennings23120
Damien Williams23110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.78