Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.032
- 44.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.12CPOE+1.20
- 37.1%Third-down rate31.0%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.02Points / drive1.42
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. MIA are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/31 | 337 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 9 | 166 | 2 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/41 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 11 | 18 | 99 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78