2011 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

17·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapGiants
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.050
  • 39.0%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.143
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.28CPOE+1.53
  • 33.1%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.84
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5NYG @ MIA16–31MIA
2021 · W13NYG @ MIA9–20MIA
2019 · W15MIA @ NYG20–36NYG
2015 · W14NYG @ MIA31–24NYG
2007 · W8NYG @ MIA13–10NYG
2003 · W5MIA @ NYG23–10MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001051Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 10:061254Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 4:10771Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 0:171286Touchdown14–3
NYGQ2 9:37613Punt14–3
MIAQ2 7:34613Punt14–3
NYGQ2 4:091379Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 0:0800End of half14–10
MIAQ3 15:00658Field goal17–10
NYGQ3 12:17841Punt17–10
MIAQ3 8:0837Punt17–10
NYGQ3 6:3032Punt17–10
MIAQ3 5:00425Punt17–10
NYGQ3 2:451288Field goal17–13
MIAQ4 10:3747Punt17–13
NYGQ4 8:28653Touchdown17–20
MIAQ4 5:583-14Punt17–20
NYGQ4 4:0947Punt17–20
MIAQ4 3:35511Turnover17–20
NYGQ4 1:4400End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore13/2213801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush151036.90
Matt Moore5316.21
Steve Slaton571.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall46550
Davone Bess35430
Reggie Bush45170
Charles Clay11160
Anthony Fasano0100
Brian Hartline0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning31/4534920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw13503.80
Brandon Jacobs4102.50
D.J. Ware210.50
Eli Manning4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz79991
Hakeem Nicks610670
Mario Manningham69631
Jake Ballard47550
Ahmad Bradshaw55380
Bear Pascoe11220
D.J. Ware1250
Brandon Jacobs1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.70