Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.050
- 39.0%Success rate44.0%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.28CPOE+1.53
- 33.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.63Points / drive1.84
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 13/22 | 138 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 31/45 | 349 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 7 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Jake Ballard | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.70