Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.084
- 39.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.108EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 0.93Points / drive1.33
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:57 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:11 | 10 | 85 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:52 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 2:17 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 12:31 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:59 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 3:06 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:50 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q3 13:29 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q3 13:16 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| PIT | Q3 12:15 | 1 | 22 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 12:09 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 10:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 8:44 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 3–28 |
| ARI | Q3 6:33 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| PIT | Q3 2:29 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 9–28 |
| ARI | Q4 14:44 | 13 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 9–28 |
| PIT | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–28 |
| ARI | Q4 8:41 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 9–28 |
| PIT | Q4 7:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–28 |
| ARI | Q4 5:41 | 8 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 9–28 |
| PIT | Q4 2:56 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–28 |
| ARI | Q4 1:42 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 15–28 |
| PIT | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 23/43 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 12/24 | 159 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.94