Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.084
- 39.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.108EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 0.93Points / drive1.33
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 23/43 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 12/24 | 159 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.94