Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
46
Model margin
+2.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.077
- 44.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.03CPOE-5.82
- 45.1%Third-down rate32.0%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.78Points / drive1.38
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/39 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 118 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 18/34 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 3 | 76 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMarco Sampson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.58
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.40