2011 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

32·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

46

Model margin

+2.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.077
  • 44.9%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.03CPOE-5.82
  • 45.1%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.38
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13ARI @ PIT24–10ARI
2019 · W14PIT @ ARI23–17PIT
2015 · W6ARI @ PIT13–25PIT
2008 · playoffsPIT @ ARI27–23PIT
2007 · W4PIT @ ARI14–21ARI
2003 · W10ARI @ PIT15–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00414Turnover0–0
PITQ1 12:46525Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 9:39516Punt7–0
PITQ1 7:18949Punt7–0
ARIQ1 2:53841Punt7–0
PITQ2 14:19519Punt7–0
ARIQ2 11:17629Punt7–0
PITQ2 8:21195Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 8:091570Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 1:20928Field goal17–7
PITQ3 15:00523Punt17–7
ARIQ3 12:06689Touchdown17–14
PITQ3 9:261180Touchdown24–14
ARIQ3 3:5410Safety26–14
PITQ3 3:421246Field goal29–14
ARIQ4 11:3030Punt29–14
PITQ4 10:56624Field goal32–14
ARIQ4 6:461171Touchdown32–20
PITQ4 3:53858End of half32–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger26/3936130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13322.50
Isaac Redman6294.80
Mewelde Moore6264.30
Heath Miller166.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace361181
Antonio Brown791020
Heath Miller45591
Emmanuel Sanders57461
Hines Ward34210
Isaac Redman33100
Rashard Mendenhall1250
Jerricho Cotchery0100
Weslye Saunders0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb18/3427221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells12423.50
Alfonso Smith5173.41
Kevin Kolb2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald410780
LaRod Stephens-Howling23761
Early Doucet55301
Rob Housler26280
DeMarco Sampson22270
Jeff King11100
Andre Roberts1580

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.58
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.40