Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.052
- 42.9%Success rate45.0%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.13CPOE+5.02
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.61Points / drive2.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 71 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:45 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:13 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:01 | 10 | 93 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:34 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 4:16 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 2:46 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 2:00 | 8 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 17–7 |
| PIT | Q3 10:50 | 16 | 44 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| ARI | Q3 2:11 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 20–7 |
| PIT | Q4 13:41 | 4 | -10 | Punt | 20–7 |
| ARI | Q4 11:30 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| PIT | Q4 7:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| ARI | Q4 5:28 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 20–14 |
| PIT | Q4 3:26 | 3 | 0 | Safety | 20–16 |
| ARI | Q4 2:58 | 2 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| PIT | Q4 2:37 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 27–23 |
| ARI | Q4 0:35 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 27–23 |
| PIT | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/30 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 31/43 | 377 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21