Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.052
- 42.9%Success rate45.0%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.13CPOE+5.02
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.61Points / drive2.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/30 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 31/43 | 377 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21