2023 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

24·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

41

Model margin

+3.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.064
  • 41.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.77CPOE-0.21
  • 39.6%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.54
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W14PIT @ ARI23–17PIT
2015 · W6ARI @ PIT13–25PIT
2011 · W7PIT @ ARI32–20PIT
2008 · playoffsPIT @ ARI27–23PIT
2007 · W4PIT @ ARI14–21ARI
2003 · W10ARI @ PIT15–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PIT
PITQ1 15:00665Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 12:0130Punt0–3
PITQ1 11:0738Punt0–3
ARIQ1 9:16722Field goal3–3
PITQ1 5:44517Punt3–3
ARIQ1 2:373-1Punt3–3
PITQ1 1:0734Punt3–3
ARIQ2 14:4845Punt3–3
PITQ2 12:441468Turnover on downs3–3
ARIQ2 4:5116109Touchdown10–3
PITQ2 0:1500End of half10–3
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt10–3
PITQ3 14:04828Turnover10–3
ARIQ3 10:29814Touchdown17–3
PITQ3 7:18853Missed field goal17–3
ARIQ3 3:201047Punt17–3
PITQ4 12:1935Punt17–3
ARIQ4 10:36433Touchdown24–3
PITQ4 8:281070Touchdown24–10
ARIQ4 4:25650End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray13/2314510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner251054.22
Michael Carter4256.30
Kyler Murray9202.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride89891
Elijah Higgins12210
Greg Dortch13190
Geoff Swaim22100
Rondale Moore1260
James Conner0200
Marquise Brown0300

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky11/1711710
Kenny Pickett7/107000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris16633.90
Jaylen Warren9596.60
Mitchell Trubisky351.70
Kenny Pickett331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens45860
Diontae Johnson45331
Pat Freiermuth35290
Allen Robinson33190
Najee Harris23140
Calvin Austin III11100
Jaylen Warren13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.89