Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
41
Model margin
+3.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.064
- 41.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.082EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.77CPOE-0.21
- 39.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.88Points / drive1.54
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 13/23 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James Conner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 11/17 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 7/10 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 5 | 86 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89