Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play+0.014
- 38.5%Success rate42.7%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.257EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.51CPOE-1.81
- 34.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.85
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 16/19 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| James Washington | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/30 | 194 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.47