2019 · Week 14

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

23·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.136EPA / play+0.014
  • 38.5%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.257EPA / rush+0.004
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.51CPOE-1.81
  • 34.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.85
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13ARI @ PIT24–10ARI
2015 · W6ARI @ PIT13–25PIT
2011 · W7PIT @ ARI32–20PIT
2008 · playoffsPIT @ ARI27–23PIT
2007 · W4PIT @ ARI14–21ARI
2003 · W10ARI @ PIT15–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0055Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:201251Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 4:2040Opp touchdown10–0
ARIQ1 2:5230Punt10–0
PITQ1 0:4410Turnover10–0
ARIQ1 0:38822Field goal10–3
PITQ2 11:15633Punt10–3
ARIQ2 7:031285Touchdown10–10
PITQ2 1:51756Field goal13–10
PITQ3 15:0039Punt13–10
ARIQ3 13:211035Turnover13–10
PITQ3 8:061257Touchdown20–10
ARIQ3 2:001069Turnover20–10
PITQ4 12:26712Turnover20–10
ARIQ4 8:04332Touchdown20–17
PITQ4 6:441158Field goal23–17
ARIQ4 1:424-12Turnover23–17
PITQ4 0:3600End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges16/1915210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell16412.60
Kerrith Whyte5418.20
Devlin Hodges5346.80
Jaylen Samuels7162.30
Diontae Johnson11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson68601
James Washington44330
Deon Cain11220
Jaylen Samuels22180
Kerrith Whyte1190
Trey Edmunds1170
Vance McDonald1130

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/3019423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake11373.40
David Johnson3196.30
Chase Edmonds199.00
Christian Kirk144.00
Kyler Murray620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk89850
David Johnson22341
Kenyan Drake33300
Larry Fitzgerald37200
Damiere Byrd11100
Charles Clay1151
Pharoh Cooper1150
Andy Isabella1150
Maxx Williams0100
Chase Edmonds0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.47