2015 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

13·25

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Michael Vick

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

-3.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.077
  • 47.7%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.51CPOE+4.85
  • 47.4%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.08
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13ARI @ PIT24–10ARI
2019 · W14PIT @ ARI23–17PIT
2011 · W7PIT @ ARI32–20PIT
2008 · playoffsPIT @ ARI27–23PIT
2007 · W4PIT @ ARI14–21ARI
2003 · W10ARI @ PIT15–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PIT
ARIQ1 15:00452Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:343-2Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:14647Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 8:175-1Punt7–0
ARIQ1 5:1810Turnover7–0
PITQ1 5:1238Punt7–0
ARIQ1 3:34950Punt7–0
PITQ2 14:05523Punt7–0
ARIQ2 11:59653Missed field goal7–0
PITQ2 9:18624Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 6:061378Field goal10–3
PITQ2 0:4737Punt10–3
ARIQ2 0:1300End of half10–3
PITQ3 15:00631Field goal10–6
ARIQ3 11:1429Turnover10–6
PITQ3 10:21432Touchdown10–12
ARIQ3 8:4556Punt10–12
PITQ3 6:00631Field goal10–15
ARIQ3 2:32561Field goal13–15
PITQ4 14:561268Field goal13–18
ARIQ4 7:191048Turnover13–18
PITQ4 2:20290Touchdown13–25
ARIQ4 1:58866Turnover on downs13–25
PITQ4 0:1300End of half13–25

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer29/4542112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson14402.90
David Johnson393.00
Andre Ellington177.00
Carson Palmer2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown10141960
Larry Fitzgerald810930
Michael Floyd58501
Andre Ellington22470
Troy Niklas11130
Darren Fells1290
David Johnson1180
Chris Johnson1150
Jermaine Gresham0100
Jaron Brown0400

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Landry Jones8/1216820
Mike Vick3/8600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell24883.70
Mike Vick5479.40
Martavis Bryant188.00
DeAngelo Williams1-1-1.00
Landry Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant681372
Antonio Brown38240
Markus Wheaton1280
Heath Miller1150
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.89
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-3.23