Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
-3.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.077
- 47.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.260EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.51CPOE+4.85
- 47.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.34Points / drive2.08
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/45 | 421 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 10 | 14 | 196 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Jones | 8/12 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3/8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 6 | 8 | 137 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.89
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.23