Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.037
- 41.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +5.79CPOE+0.38
- 47.9%Third-down rate36.9%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 2.10Points / drive1.68
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/32 | 244 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 19 | 37 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 14/21 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 7/14 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.21