Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.085
- 39.7%Success rate39.6%
- -0.140EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- 31.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.19Points / drive1.23
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. DAL are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/34 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/32 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.38