2019 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

26·15

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.8%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.017
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.62CPOE+1.10
  • 35.9%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.45
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. DAL are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DAL @ BUF10–31BUF
2015 · W16DAL @ BUF6–16BUF
2011 · W10BUF @ DAL7–44DAL
2007 · W5DAL @ BUF25–24DAL
2003 · W10BUF @ DAL6–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DAL
DALQ1 15:001062Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 10:34518Punt0–7
DALQ1 7:23647Punt0–7
BUFQ1 5:09930Punt0–7
DALQ1 0:59935Punt0–7
BUFQ2 11:47885Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 8:01512Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 5:323-3Missed field goal7–7
DALQ2 4:2534Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 3:20649Touchdown13–7
DALQ2 1:521053Missed field goal13–7
BUFQ3 15:00733Field goal16–7
DALQ3 10:47551Missed field goal16–7
BUFQ3 7:37763Touchdown23–7
DALQ3 3:371154Turnover on downs23–7
BUFQ3 0:221368Field goal26–7
DALQ4 8:201138Turnover on downs26–7
BUFQ4 5:4834Punt26–7
DALQ4 5:28570Touchdown26–15
BUFQ4 4:01410End of half26–15

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/2423110
John Brown1/12810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary14634.50
Josh Allen10434.31
Frank Gore9111.20
Robert Foster177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley671101
Devin Singletary34381
Isaiah McKenzie33340
John Brown34260
Robert Foster12200
Dawson Knox34170
Frank Gore11140

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott32/4935521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12715.90
Dak Prescott4256.30
Tony Pollard372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper811850
Ezekiel Elliott710660
Michael Gallup37630
Randall Cobb33530
Jason Witten68421
Tavon Austin25220
Ventell Bryant11151
Blake Jarwin2390
Tony Pollard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08