Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.111
- 41.8%Success rate48.7%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.017
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.62CPOE+1.10
- 35.9%Third-down rate47.2%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.56Points / drive2.45
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. DAL are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/24 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1/1 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 7 | 110 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 32/49 | 355 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Ventell Bryant | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08