Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play+0.097
- 48.0%Success rate48.4%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.061EPA / rush+0.010
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.68CPOE+4.96
- 49.6%Third-down rate49.7%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.67Points / drive2.33
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/34 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7/15 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 25 | 179 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45