2023 · Week 15

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

10·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBills
  • +0.121EPA / play+0.097
  • 48.0%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.061EPA / rush+0.010
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.68CPOE+4.96
  • 49.6%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.33
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W13BUF @ DAL26–15BUF
2015 · W16DAL @ BUF6–16BUF
2011 · W10BUF @ DAL7–44DAL
2007 · W5DAL @ BUF25–24DAL
2003 · W10BUF @ DAL6–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001372Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:06829Punt0–7
BUFQ1 4:0137Punt0–7
DALQ1 3:0430Punt0–7
BUFQ1 2:361171Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 12:521046Field goal3–14
BUFQ2 7:131261Touchdown3–21
DALQ2 1:36514Punt3–21
BUFQ2 0:1900End of half3–21
DALQ3 15:00611Punt3–21
BUFQ3 10:581465Field goal3–24
DALQ3 2:363-8Punt3–24
BUFQ3 0:35662Touchdown3–31
DALQ4 12:30723Turnover3–31
BUFQ4 10:3733Punt3–31
DALQ4 8:181580Touchdown10–31
BUFQ4 2:48213End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3413401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard11524.70
Dak Prescott4276.80
Rico Dowdle341.30
CeeDee Lamb133.01
Hunter Luepke133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb710530
Jake Ferguson68440
Brandin Cooks26100
Michael Gallup1190
Rico Dowdle2380
Tony Pollard2350
Peyton Hendershot1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen7/159410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook251797.21
Ty Johnson9546.00
Josh Allen8243.01
Latavius Murray5112.21
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs45480
James Cook23421
Ty Johnson1140
Gabe Davis0100
Khalil Shakir0100
Dalton Kincaid0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.45