Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.047
- 44.6%Success rate45.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.64CPOE+4.08
- 30.9%Third-down rate39.2%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.79
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. DAL are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/31 | 146 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 114 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 6 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/26 | 270 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 135 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 3 | 3 | 73 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jesse Holley | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55