2011 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

7·44

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.000EPA / play+0.047
  • 44.6%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.64CPOE+4.08
  • 30.9%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.79
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. DAL are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DAL @ BUF10–31BUF
2019 · W13BUF @ DAL26–15BUF
2015 · W16DAL @ BUF6–16BUF
2007 · W5DAL @ BUF25–24DAL
2003 · W10BUF @ DAL6–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DAL
DALQ1 15:00580Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 12:123-4Punt0–7
DALQ1 10:401273Touchdown0–14
BUFQ1 3:051041Missed field goal0–20
DALQ2 12:26158Touchdown0–21
BUFQ2 12:17954Touchdown7–21
DALQ2 8:161478Touchdown7–28
BUFQ2 1:0537Punt7–28
DALQ2 0:26229End of half7–28
BUFQ3 15:001051Turnover on downs7–28
DALQ3 9:45515Punt7–28
BUFQ3 7:2934Punt7–28
DALQ3 5:49639Field goal7–31
BUFQ3 2:2510Turnover7–31
DALQ3 2:1434Field goal7–34
BUFQ3 0:16438Turnover7–34
DALQ4 12:551059Field goal7–37
BUFQ4 5:1110Opp touchdown7–44
BUFQ4 4:541065Turnover7–44
DALQ4 1:0100End of half7–44

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3114613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson131148.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick3206.70
C.J. Spiller111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Jones610510
Scott Chandler33340
David Nelson46311
Naaman Roosevelt11210
Steve Johnson2580
Fred Jackson4410

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/2627030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray201356.81
Phillip Tanner11292.60
Tony Romo200.00
Jon Kitna2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant66741
Laurent Robinson33732
Jason Witten57370
DeMarco Murray67360
Jesse Holley11250
Kevin Ogletree11170
Martellus Bennett1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.55