Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.125
- 45.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.58CPOE-1.62
- 43.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.23Points / drive1.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:47 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 9:20 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 7:53 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 5:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 4:20 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 1:09 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 12:09 | 14 | 78 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 3:26 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q2 3:15 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q2 2:05 | 4 | 16 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q2 0:36 | 3 | 27 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| BUF | Q3 9:02 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| DAL | Q3 8:48 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 13–24 |
| BUF | Q3 7:22 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 13–24 |
| DAL | Q3 3:33 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| BUF | Q4 14:47 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 16–24 |
| DAL | Q4 11:18 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 16–24 |
| BUF | Q4 9:51 | 8 | 32 | Turnover | 16–24 |
| DAL | Q4 6:05 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 16–24 |
| BUF | Q4 5:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:45 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| BUF | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 22–24 |
| DAL | Q4 0:18 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 25–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 29/50 | 309 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 23/31 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29