Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.125
- 45.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.112
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.58CPOE-1.62
- 43.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.23Points / drive1.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 29/50 | 309 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 23/31 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29