Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.025
- 43.9%Success rate40.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.85CPOE+2.97
- 34.0%Third-down rate38.1%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 1.31Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Moore | 13/31 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kellen Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Butler | 4 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 13/18 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 9 | 93 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.02
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.85