2015 · Week 16

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Kellen Moore

6·16

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 39°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

+0.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBills
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.025
  • 43.9%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.85CPOE+2.97
  • 34.0%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.83
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.7 points. BUF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15DAL @ BUF10–31BUF
2019 · W13BUF @ DAL26–15BUF
2011 · W10BUF @ DAL7–44DAL
2007 · W5DAL @ BUF25–24DAL
2003 · W10BUF @ DAL6–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–BUF
DALQ1 15:001147Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 9:41742Turnover on downs3–0
DALQ1 5:45733Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ1 2:45545Touchdown3–6
DALQ1 0:48951Punt3–6
BUFQ2 10:50416Punt3–6
DALQ2 8:16545Field goal6–6
BUFQ2 5:251396Turnover6–6
DALQ2 0:0200End of half6–6
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt6–6
DALQ3 13:2236Punt6–6
BUFQ3 11:541066Field goal6–9
DALQ3 6:17754Turnover6–9
BUFQ3 3:09322Turnover6–9
DALQ3 1:47622Punt6–9
BUFQ4 13:57416Punt6–9
DALQ4 11:401050Punt6–9
BUFQ4 6:53992Touchdown6–16
DALQ4 2:2500Turnover6–16
BUFQ4 2:18216Turnover6–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Moore13/3118601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden19995.20
Robert Turbin5234.60
Kellen Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brice Butler49740
Terrance Williams410620
Cole Beasley22290
Jason Witten12120
James Hanna14100
Robert Turbin0100
Devin Street0100
Darren McFadden11-10

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor13/1817901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee99310.31
Karlos Williams17764.51
Tyrod Taylor14674.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins56840
Chris Hogan24390
Karlos Williams22210
Chris Gragg23190
Mike Gillislee22160
Nick O'Leary0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.02
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.85