2003 · Week 12

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

19·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 18°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -10.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.100EPA / play+0.045
  • 38.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.016EPA / rush+0.047
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.96
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.073

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. DEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4DEN @ CHI31–28DEN
2019 · W2CHI @ DEN16–14CHI
2015 · W11DEN @ CHI17–15DEN
2011 · W14CHI @ DEN10–13DEN
2007 · W12DEN @ CHI34–37CHI

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler8/187900
Kordell Stewart7/154700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas21602.90
Kordell Stewart8293.61
Stanley Pritchett2115.50
Bobby Wade144.00
Chris Chandler122.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer19/3517610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis1416511.80
Quentin Griffin5265.20
Jake Plummer294.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.94