Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.052
- 42.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.045
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.74CPOE+0.01
- 36.8%Third-down rate41.7%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.72
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/28 | 223 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 28/35 | 335 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 9 | 85 | 2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.01