2023 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

31·28

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

47

Model margin

+2.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBears
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.052
  • 42.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.045
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.74CPOE+0.01
  • 36.8%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.72
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W2CHI @ DEN16–14CHI
2015 · W11DEN @ CHI17–15DEN
2011 · W14CHI @ DEN10–13DEN
2007 · W12DEN @ CHI34–37CHI
2003 · W12CHI @ DEN19–10CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:201169Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 5:08975Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 14:5332Punt7–7
CHIQ2 13:00349Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 11:44425Punt7–14
CHIQ2 8:35675Touchdown7–21
DENQ2 6:08524Punt7–21
CHIQ2 2:29741Turnover on downs7–21
DENQ3 15:0039Punt7–21
CHIQ3 13:371576Touchdown7–28
DENQ3 4:11765Touchdown14–28
CHIQ3 0:1445Punt14–28
DENQ4 13:561070Touchdown21–28
CHIQ4 9:36510Opp touchdown28–28
CHIQ4 6:551182Turnover on downs28–28
DENQ4 2:52448Field goal31–28
CHIQ4 1:46733Turnover31–28
DENQ4 0:3200End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2822330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin77210.30
Russell Wilson4133.30
Samaje Perine6122.00
Javonte Williams200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy35520
Marvin Mims Jr.22470
Jaleel McLaughlin33321
Courtland Sutton35271
Samaje Perine22230
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11110
Chris Manhertz11100
Javonte Williams3390
Nate Adkins2280
Brandon Johnson1141
Adam Trautman0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields28/3533541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert181035.70
Justin Fields4256.30
Tyler Scott2199.50
Roschon Johnson5132.60
Velus Jones Jr.11010.00
Cole Kmet111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore891311
Cole Kmet79852
Darnell Mooney44510
Equanimeous St. Brown11210
Khalil Herbert45191
Robert Tonyan22180
Marcedes Lewis1180
Roschon Johnson1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.01