2019 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

16·14

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

41

Model margin

+1.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.054
  • 41.1%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.110
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.71CPOE-2.47
  • 36.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. DEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4DEN @ CHI31–28DEN
2015 · W11DEN @ CHI17–15DEN
2011 · W14CHI @ DEN10–13DEN
2007 · W12DEN @ CHI34–37CHI
2003 · W12CHI @ DEN19–10CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DEN
DENQ1 15:00950Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 9:4531Punt0–3
DENQ1 8:0545Punt0–3
CHIQ1 6:031359Field goal3–3
DENQ2 13:35728Punt3–3
CHIQ2 9:36956Field goal6–3
DENQ2 5:101039Punt6–3
CHIQ2 1:4537Punt6–3
DENQ2 0:4037Punt6–3
CHIQ2 0:13218End of half6–3
CHIQ3 15:0074Punt6–3
DENQ3 11:44941Punt6–3
CHIQ3 6:441079Touchdown13–3
DENQ3 1:141056Field goal13–6
CHIQ4 13:3732Punt13–6
DENQ4 12:421684Turnover13–6
CHIQ4 4:45517Punt13–6
DENQ4 2:481262Touchdown13–14
CHIQ4 0:31530Field goal16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky16/2712000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery18623.41
Cordarrelle Patterson25025.00
Tarik Cohen4184.50
Taylor Gabriel11414.00
Mitchell Trubisky188.00
Mike Davis310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson47410
Ben Braunecker23240
Adam Shaheen33240
Taylor Gabriel12110
Tarik Cohen2570
David Montgomery1360
Trey Burton2350
Anthony Miller1120

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco35/5029211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman11544.90
Phillip Lindsay13362.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders1113981
Royce Freeman57480
Courtland Sutton47400
Noah Fant44330
Phillip Lindsay47300
Jeff Heuerman45210
DaeSean Hamilton26150
Troy Fumagalli1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.53