Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.054
- 41.1%Success rate40.3%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.71CPOE-2.47
- 36.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.50Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. DEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/27 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 35/50 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.53