Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.128
- 42.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- +1.55CPOE-3.34
- 40.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.46Points / drive1.34
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/31 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hall | 26 | 98 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cecil Sapp | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 17/33 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.53