Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.128
- 42.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- +1.55CPOE-3.34
- 40.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.46Points / drive1.34
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:47 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:47 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 6:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:50 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q1 3:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q1 3:01 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:10 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 9:09 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:10 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 5:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CHI | Q2 4:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 2:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CHI | Q2 1:40 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 0:48 | 4 | 65 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| CHI | Q2 0:13 | 2 | 25 | End of half | 13–6 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 12:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| CHI | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 11:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CHI | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DEN | Q3 8:39 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 20–19 |
| CHI | Q3 2:38 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| DEN | Q3 2:26 | 1 | 68 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| CHI | Q3 2:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 27–20 |
| DEN | Q3 1:10 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| CHI | Q4 10:38 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 34–20 |
| DEN | Q4 9:06 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 34–20 |
| CHI | Q4 7:14 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 34–27 |
| DEN | Q4 5:17 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 34–27 |
| CHI | Q4 2:58 | 13 | 60 | Touchdown | 34–34 |
| DEN | Q4 0:28 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 34–34 |
| CHI | OT | 5 | 53 | Field goal | 34–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/31 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hall | 26 | 98 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cecil Sapp | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 17/33 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.53