2011 · Week 14

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Hanie

10·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

35

Model margin

+7.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

  • OutJay CutlerQBright Thumb· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
  • OutMajor WrightSShoulder· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
  • OutMatt ForteRBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.089
  • 39.3%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.53CPOE-6.16
  • 32.9%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.16
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. DEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4DEN @ CHI31–28DEN
2019 · W2CHI @ DEN16–14CHI
2015 · W11DEN @ CHI17–15DEN
2007 · W12DEN @ CHI34–37CHI
2003 · W12CHI @ DEN19–10CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DEN
DENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:12314Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:5837Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:44514Punt0–0
DENQ1 6:391042Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 2:26512Punt0–0
DENQ2 15:001549Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ2 7:2230Punt0–0
DENQ2 5:4439Punt0–0
CHIQ2 4:04844Punt0–0
DENQ2 0:37427End of half0–0
CHIQ3 15:003-1Punt0–0
DENQ3 13:4230Punt0–0
CHIQ3 12:50417Punt0–0
DENQ3 10:2939Punt0–0
CHIQ3 8:34642Touchdown7–0
DENQ3 5:1936Punt7–0
CHIQ3 3:48738Field goal10–0
DENQ4 14:5538Punt10–0
CHIQ4 13:0230Punt10–0
DENQ4 11:30628Turnover10–0
CHIQ4 8:5335Punt10–0
DENQ4 6:50424Punt10–0
CHIQ4 5:4137Punt10–0
DENQ4 4:34763Touchdown10–7
CHIQ4 2:0836Punt10–7
DENQ4 0:56639Field goal10–10
CHIQ4 0:0300End of half10–10
CHIOT647Turnover10–10
DENOT833Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Hanie12/1911500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber271084.01
Kahlil Bell9404.40
Caleb Hanie2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox35370
Marion Barber24320
Kahlil Bell55240
Roy Williams22220
Devin Hester0100
Earl Bennett0100
Kellen Davis0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow21/4023611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Tebow12494.10
Willis McGahee17342.00
Jeremiah Johnson2189.00
Lance Ball11313.00
Demaryius Thomas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas713781
Matt Willis48750
Lance Ball46370
Eric Decker37330
Jeremiah Johnson22110
Willis McGahee1120
Daniel Fells0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.25