Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
+7.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.089
- 39.3%Success rate39.5%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.53CPOE-6.16
- 32.9%Third-down rate30.8%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.37Points / drive1.16
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. DEN are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Hanie | 12/19 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 27 | 108 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kahlil Bell | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Caleb Hanie | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 21/40 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 34 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 13 | 78 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 4 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.25