2015 · Week 11

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

17·15

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBears
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.020
  • 40.5%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.92CPOE+1.51
  • 35.2%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.74
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4DEN @ CHI31–28DEN
2019 · W2CHI @ DEN16–14CHI
2011 · W14CHI @ DEN10–13DEN
2007 · W12DEN @ CHI34–37CHI
2003 · W12CHI @ DEN19–10CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:48474Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 12:14835Punt7–0
DENQ1 6:471243Punt7–0
CHIQ2 14:48958Field goal7–3
DENQ2 10:3239Punt7–3
CHIQ2 9:10650Field goal7–6
DENQ2 6:1332Punt7–6
CHIQ2 5:1137Punt7–6
DENQ2 3:401282Field goal10–6
DENQ3 15:00431Punt10–6
CHIQ3 12:0139Punt10–6
DENQ3 10:3139Punt10–6
CHIQ3 9:05311Turnover10–6
DENQ3 7:48623Turnover on downs10–6
CHIQ3 4:22845Field goal10–9
DENQ3 0:491071Touchdown17–9
CHIQ4 11:42661Turnover on downs17–9
DENQ4 10:03852Punt17–9
CHIQ4 4:23615Turnover17–9
DENQ4 2:233-6Punt17–9
CHIQ4 1:49747Touchdown17–15
DENQ4 0:2400End of half17–15

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler20/2725020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman211024.90
C.J. Anderson12594.90
Cody Latimer155.00
Brock Osweiler242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels45690
Vernon Davis66680
Demaryius Thomas38591
Cody Latimer23221
C.J. Anderson22130
Virgil Green1190
Jordan Norwood1180
Ronnie Hillman1120

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3226501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ka'Deem Carey9323.60
Jay Cutler3299.70
Jeremy Langford13251.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquess Wilson471020
Josh Bellamy45570
Zach Miller36470
Martellus Bennett26260
Jeremy Langford36170
Marc Mariani11100
Cameron Meredith1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.42