Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.020
- 40.5%Success rate42.8%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.92CPOE+1.51
- 35.2%Third-down rate42.3%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.47Points / drive1.74
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 40.7 points. CHI are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 20/27 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/32 | 265 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'Deem Carey | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquess Wilson | 4 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.42