Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.032
- 42.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- 46.4%Third-down rate36.7%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.71Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/38 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 9/17 | 131 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 34 | 194 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.46