Closing spread
NO -9
Total
45
Model margin
-1.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play-0.173
- 51.4%Success rate36.3%
- +0.305EPA / dropback-0.210
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.127
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +7.27CPOE-11.15
- 58.6%Third-down rate34.3%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.96Points / drive1.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/44 | 351 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 14 | 132 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 16/42 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 84 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 5 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 2 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.46