2011 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

23·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NO -9

Total

45

Model margin

-1.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.198EPA / play-0.173
  • 51.4%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.305EPA / dropback-0.210
  • +0.014EPA / rush-0.127
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +7.27CPOE-11.15
  • 58.6%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.96Points / drive1.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7JAX @ NO31–24JAX
2019 · W6NO @ JAX13–6NO
2015 · W16JAX @ NO27–38NO
2007 · W9JAX @ NO24–41NO
2003 · W16NO @ JAX19–20JAX
1999 · W11NO @ JAX23–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00734Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 12:48962Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:59754Punt7–0
NOQ1 4:011298Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 12:371265Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 7:29944Missed field goal14–7
JAXQ2 3:50616Punt14–7
NOQ2 1:46323Turnover14–7
JAXQ2 0:5230Field goal14–10
NOQ2 0:34646End of half14–10
NOQ3 15:00860Field goal17–10
JAXQ3 10:45439Turnover17–10
NOQ3 9:06947Field goal20–10
JAXQ3 4:1136Punt20–10
NOQ3 3:101060Field goal23–10
JAXQ4 12:463-4Punt23–10
NOQ4 11:43411Turnover23–10
JAXQ4 9:56814Turnover on downs23–10
NOQ4 6:553-10Punt23–10
JAXQ4 5:36843Turnover on downs23–10
NOQ4 3:24552Missed field goal23–10
JAXQ4 2:0447Turnover on downs23–10
NOQ4 1:45311End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4435112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles77510.70
Mark Ingram17553.20
Pierre Thomas6366.00
Drew Brees3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham10141321
Robert Meachem46590
Darren Sproles57560
Lance Moore56500
Pierre Thomas44430
Marques Colston1380
Mark Ingram2230
Devery Henderson0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert16/4219611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew11847.60
Blaine Gabbert2147.00
Deji Karim461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas511730
Marcedes Lewis37380
Jason Hill29340
Jarett Dillard23160
Chastin West11160
Zach Miller13141
Maurice Jones-Drew1430
Brock Bolen1120
Deji Karim0100
Cecil Shorts0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.46