Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play+0.011
- 44.1%Success rate47.6%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.072
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.101
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.15CPOE+4.63
- 47.2%Third-down rate46.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 2.25Points / drive1.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NO are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 12:15 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 12:11 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q1 8:33 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q1 7:32 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q1 6:17 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| NO | Q1 2:01 | 4 | 79 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| JAX | Q1 0:12 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| NO | Q2 15:00 | 9 | 45 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| JAX | Q2 11:34 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NO | Q2 9:49 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q2 5:31 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NO | Q2 3:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q2 2:29 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NO | Q2 1:43 | 4 | 41 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q2 0:50 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| NO | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 42 | Missed field goal | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Opp touchdown | 17–31 |
| JAX | Q3 8:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–31 |
| NO | Q3 6:56 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| JAX | Q3 2:02 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 17–38 |
| NO | Q4 13:39 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–38 |
| JAX | Q4 11:09 | 3 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–38 |
| NO | Q4 9:32 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 24–41 |
| JAX | Q4 3:01 | 11 | 61 | Turnover | 24–41 |
| NO | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 20/33 | 354 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/49 | 445 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60