1999 · Week 11

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Tolliver

23·41

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

JAX -12.5

Total

35

Model margin

+6.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.048
  • 36.9%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.75
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7JAX @ NO31–24JAX
2019 · W6NO @ JAX13–6NO
2015 · W16JAX @ NO27–38NO
2011 · W4NO @ JAX23–10NO
2007 · W9JAX @ NO24–41NO
2003 · W16NO @ JAX19–20JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–JAX
NOQ1 15:0033Opp touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 13:0900Opp touchdown0–7
NOQ1 13:091280Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 5:28774Touchdown7–14
NOQ1 1:30679Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 13:05759Turnover14–14
NOQ2 10:30618Punt14–14
JAXQ2 6:47741Punt14–14
NOQ2 4:32645Field goal17–14
JAXQ2 1:48857Field goal17–17
JAXQ3 15:00577Touchdown17–24
NOQ3 12:263-5Punt17–24
JAXQ3 10:49358Touchdown17–31
NOQ3 9:3033Punt17–31
JAXQ3 7:4934Punt17–31
NOQ3 5:511162Missed field goal17–31
JAXQ3 0:241057Field goal17–34
NOQ4 10:2824Turnover17–34
JAXQ4 9:36621Touchdown17–41
NOQ4 7:30850Touchdown23–41
JAXQ4 4:231046End of half23–41

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver10/1415900
Billy Joe Hobert8/139201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams19944.92
Billy Joe Hobert2168.00
Eddie Kennison111.00
Billy Joe Tolliver111.01
Troy Davis100.00
Lamar Smith3-12-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Slutzker33640
Andre Hastings55580
Keith Poole34440
Eddie Kennison25380
Ricky Williams25270
Lawrence Dawsey13130
Lamar Smith1140
Josh Wilcox1130

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell19/3035121
Jay Fiedler2/22100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart16875.42
Mark Brunell3279.00
Stacey Mack6274.50
Jay Fiedler2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith9112201
James Stewart55530
Reggie Barlow23300
Kyle Brady12300
Damon Jones22201
Keenan McCardell26190
Lenzie Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.93