Closing spread
JAX -12.5
Total
35
Model margin
+6.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.048
- 36.9%Success rate42.5%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.12Points / drive1.75
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 10/14 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 8/13 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 94 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Troy Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | -12 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Slutzker | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/30 | 351 | 2 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2/2 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 9 | 11 | 220 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Lenzie Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.93