Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.015
- 43.1%Success rate42.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.62CPOE+1.94
- 38.5%Third-down rate39.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.84Points / drive1.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NO are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/29 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 33/55 | 301 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 14 | 91 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 7 | 15 | 57 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 3 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23