2023 · Week 7

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

31·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSaints
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.015
  • 43.1%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.62CPOE+1.94
  • 38.5%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.82
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. NO are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W6NO @ JAX13–6NO
2015 · W16JAX @ NO27–38NO
2011 · W4NO @ JAX23–10NO
2007 · W9JAX @ NO24–41NO
2003 · W16NO @ JAX19–20JAX
1999 · W11NO @ JAX23–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NO
JAXQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 9:441043Missed field goal7–0
JAXQ1 5:16119Turnover7–0
NOQ1 5:0234Punt7–0
NOQ1 3:36512Field goal7–3
JAXQ1 1:26770Touchdown14–3
NOQ2 13:09631Turnover on downs14–3
JAXQ2 10:4330Punt14–3
NOQ2 9:47526Punt14–3
JAXQ2 7:1737Punt14–3
NOQ2 5:41729Field goal14–6
JAXQ2 1:57955Field goal17–6
NOQ2 0:321-6End of half17–6
NOQ3 15:001162Field goal17–9
JAXQ3 9:49314Punt17–9
NOQ3 7:3930Opp touchdown24–9
NOQ3 6:471773Touchdown24–16
JAXQ4 14:21414Punt24–16
NOQ4 11:2935Punt24–16
JAXQ4 10:2778Turnover on downs24–16
NOQ4 7:29353Touchdown24–24
JAXQ4 6:38526Punt24–24
NOQ4 4:3036Punt24–24
JAXQ4 3:45246Touchdown31–24
NOQ4 3:081269Turnover on downs31–24
JAXQ4 0:2100End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/2920410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trevor Lawrence8597.40
Travis Etienne14533.82
Tank Bigsby221.00
Calvin Ridley100.00
Jamal Agnew1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk66901
Evan Engram57450
Jamal Agnew46360
Travis Etienne35240
Tim Jones22170
Calvin Ridley1450

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr33/5530111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara17623.60
Taysom Hill5183.61
Derek Carr3144.70
Jamaal Williams5142.80
Rashid Shaheed144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara1214910
Chris Olave715570
Taysom Hill45500
Michael Thomas37421
Foster Moreau34330
Rashid Shaheed48280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.23