Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.053
- 47.0%Success rate39.3%
- +0.172EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.92CPOE-3.03
- 43.9%Third-down rate35.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.45Points / drive1.61
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 24/36 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 14/29 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42