2015 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

27·38

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSaints
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.080
  • 41.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -3.08CPOE+2.78
  • 33.9%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.09
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. NO are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7JAX @ NO31–24JAX
2019 · W6NO @ JAX13–6NO
2011 · W4NO @ JAX23–10NO
2007 · W9JAX @ NO24–41NO
2003 · W16NO @ JAX19–20JAX
1999 · W11NO @ JAX23–41JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NO
NOQ1 15:001080Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:33734Punt0–7
NOQ1 6:4713108Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 0:27411Turnover0–14
NOQ2 13:19638Touchdown0–21
JAXQ2 10:373-2Punt0–21
NOQ2 9:0130Punt0–21
JAXQ2 7:0210Turnover0–21
NOQ2 6:56727Field goal0–24
JAXQ2 3:56879Touchdown6–24
NOQ2 1:23541Missed field goal6–24
JAXQ2 0:041-17End of half6–24
JAXQ3 15:001290Touchdown13–24
NOQ3 8:51780Touchdown13–31
JAXQ3 5:29290Touchdown19–31
NOQ3 4:491388Touchdown19–38
JAXQ4 12:59519Punt19–38
NOQ4 9:481078Missed field goal19–38
JAXQ4 2:47980Touchdown27–38
NOQ4 1:1300Punt27–38
JAXQ4 0:20228End of half27–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles27/3536842

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray5316.20
Denard Robinson6203.30
Marqise Lee199.00
Blake Bortles351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson691511
Allen Hurns8101072
Denard Robinson57500
Marqise Lee34261
Marcedes Lewis11130
Julius Thomas22120
Clay Harbor1170
Rashad Greene1120

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/3641230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower271224.52
Brandin Cooks4102.50
Travaris Cadet166.00
Drew Brees3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks571231
Willie Snead46750
Travaris Cadet35691
Tim Hightower33470
Brandon Coleman44450
Michael Hoomanawanui11171
Josh Hill23120
Benjamin Watson1250
Seantavius Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.27