Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.080
- 41.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -3.08CPOE+2.78
- 33.9%Third-down rate48.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.59Points / drive2.09
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. NO are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 27/35 | 368 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 9 | 151 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 8 | 10 | 107 | 2 |
| Denard Robinson | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 412 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 123 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Seantavius Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.27