Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.102
- 40.6%Success rate48.2%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.185EPA / rush+0.023
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.46Points / drive2.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/37 | 236 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/40 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85