Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.102
- 40.6%Success rate48.2%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.185EPA / rush+0.023
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.46Points / drive2.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 14:08 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 12:07 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q1 7:19 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q1 4:06 | 15 | 88 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 12:44 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 10:37 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q2 5:02 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q2 4:42 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| MIN | Q2 3:19 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| CIN | Q2 1:53 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 17 | End of half | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| CIN | Q3 14:30 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 12:29 | 9 | 28 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| CIN | Q3 9:38 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 6:54 | 6 | 0 | Punt | 0–27 |
| CIN | Q3 6:03 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIN | Q3 3:39 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–33 |
| CIN | Q3 2:14 | 1 | 16 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| MIN | Q3 2:06 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 0–34 |
| CIN | Q4 13:06 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 0–37 |
| MIN | Q4 5:41 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 8–37 |
| CIN | Q4 3:17 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 8–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/37 | 236 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/40 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85