Closing spread
MIN -12.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.026
- 39.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.89CPOE+3.66
- 34.7%Third-down rate44.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.49Points / drive2.02
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/22 | 113 | 0 | 2 |
| AJ McCarron | 3/6 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 20/23 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.37