2017 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

7·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -12.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.026
  • 39.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.89CPOE+3.66
  • 34.7%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.02
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3CIN @ MIN10–48MIN
2023 · W15MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · W1MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2013 · W16MIN @ CIN14–42CIN
2009 · W14CIN @ MIN10–30MIN
2005 · W2MIN @ CIN8–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIN
MINQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:3137Punt0–7
MINQ1 8:55414Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:5334Opp touchdown0–14
CINQ1 5:5449Turnover on downs0–14
MINQ1 3:4038Field goal0–17
CINQ1 1:3036Punt0–17
MINQ2 15:00412Punt0–17
CINQ2 12:5849Punt0–17
MINQ2 11:05981Touchdown0–24
CINQ2 6:4130Punt0–24
MINQ2 4:31519Punt0–24
CINQ2 1:0737Punt0–24
MINQ2 0:3810End of half0–24
CINQ3 15:00524Punt0–24
MINQ3 12:03971Field goal0–27
CINQ3 6:3410Turnover0–27
MINQ3 6:274-2Punt0–27
CINQ3 3:49653Punt0–27
MINQ3 1:31855Touchdown0–34
CINQ4 12:5335Punt0–34
MINQ4 10:38310Turnover0–34
CINQ4 9:18720Touchdown7–34
MINQ4 6:2236Punt7–34
CINQ4 4:44717Turnover on downs7–34
MINQ4 2:0000End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton11/2211302
AJ McCarron3/61900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard14302.11
Brian Hill5122.40
Josh Malone144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell26530
A.J. Green24300
C.J. Uzomah44240
Giovani Bernard35130
Alex Erickson12110
Tyler Kroft2410
Josh Malone0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum20/2323620
Teddy Bridgewater0/2001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray20763.81
Jerick McKinnon9242.70
Case Keenum12020.00
Stefon Diggs177.00
Teddy Bridgewater3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon781140
Adam Thielen35300
Stefon Diggs56301
Latavius Murray11280
Kyle Rudolph22171
Jarius Wright11110
Michael Floyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.37