2013 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Matt Cassel

14·42

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+6.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBengals
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.031
  • 41.4%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.09CPOE+1.24
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.76
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3CIN @ MIN10–48MIN
2023 · W15MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · W1MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2017 · W15CIN @ MIN7–34MIN
2009 · W14CIN @ MIN10–30MIN
2005 · W2MIN @ CIN8–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CIN
MINQ1 15:003-5Turnover0–0
CINQ1 13:2424Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 13:1238Punt0–7
CINQ1 12:09119Turnover0–7
MINQ1 11:59454Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 10:0238Punt7–7
MINQ1 8:28515Punt7–7
CINQ1 6:181080Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 0:5738Punt7–14
CINQ2 14:50845Punt7–14
MINQ2 11:3338Opp touchdown7–21
MINQ2 10:0220Turnover7–21
CINQ2 9:1149Punt7–21
MINQ2 7:113-6Punt7–21
CINQ2 5:31849Touchdown7–28
MINQ2 2:22418Punt7–28
CINQ2 0:5625End of half7–28
CINQ3 15:00880Touchdown7–35
MINQ3 10:35518Turnover on downs7–35
CINQ3 8:311071Touchdown7–42
MINQ3 3:19552Touchdown14–42
CINQ3 1:341344Turnover on downs14–42
MINQ4 9:11518Turnover on downs14–42
CINQ4 7:2533Punt14–42
MINQ4 5:31421Turnover14–42
CINQ4 3:59411End of half14–42

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/2711413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson35418.01
Adrian Peterson11454.10
Matt Cassel3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarius Wright12361
Greg Jennings46270
Rhett Ellison23220
Joe Banyard11110
Jerome Simpson1580
Cordarrelle Patterson3780
Adrian Peterson1120
Chase Ford0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/3836340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12242.01
Giovani Bernard13201.50
Mohamed Sanu3124.00
Andy Dalton11010.00
Cedric Peerman263.00
Marvin Jones263.00
Josh Johnson430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green712972
Marvin Jones67850
Giovani Bernard23470
Jermaine Gresham33461
Andrew Hawkins33370
Mohamed Sanu46351
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12100
Tyler Eifert1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.20