Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+6.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.031
- 41.4%Success rate43.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.09CPOE+1.24
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.76
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/27 | 114 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/38 | 363 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 12 | 97 | 2 |
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.20