Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.001
- 43.2%Success rate44.4%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.80CPOE+2.09
- 37.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 26/33 | 303 | 2 | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Nick Mullens | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 6 | 111 | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 29/42 | 324 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 8 | 61 | 2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83