2023 · Week 15

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Nick Mullens

24·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBengals
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.001
  • 43.2%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.80CPOE+2.09
  • 37.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3CIN @ MIN10–48MIN
2021 · W1MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2017 · W15CIN @ MIN7–34MIN
2013 · W16MIN @ CIN14–42CIN
2009 · W14CIN @ MIN10–30MIN
2005 · W2MIN @ CIN8–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CIN
CINQ1 15:001059Field goal0–3
MINQ1 8:411275Touchdown7–3
CINQ1 2:2338Punt7–3
MINQ1 1:223-6Punt7–3
CINQ2 14:48615Punt7–3
MINQ2 11:441475Turnover7–3
CINQ2 4:06613Punt7–3
MINQ2 1:37544Turnover7–3
CINQ2 0:2536End of half7–3
MINQ3 15:00892Touchdown14–3
CINQ3 10:46415Turnover14–3
MINQ3 9:08741Field goal17–3
CINQ3 4:32875Touchdown17–10
MINQ4 14:56310Punt17–10
CINQ4 13:221174Touchdown17–17
MINQ4 7:46870Touchdown24–17
CINQ4 3:481075Touchdown24–24
MINQ4 0:3932Punt24–24
CINQ4 0:1000End of half24–24
CINOT3-8Punt24–24
MINOT521Turnover on downs24–24
CINOT449Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens26/3330322
Justin Jefferson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Chandler231325.71
Nick Mullens6101.70
Kene Nwangwu111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison661112
Justin Jefferson710840
T.J. Hockenson67630
Ty Chandler34250
Josh Oliver22140
Johnny Mundt1130
K.J. Osborn1230

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning29/4232421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon10474.71
Chase Brown7233.30
Trayveon Williams11010.00
Jake Browning400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase44640
Tee Higgins48612
Tyler Boyd25530
Tanner Hudson55490
Chase Brown33280
Mitchell Wilcox22200
Irv Smith23180
Joe Mixon33140
Charlie Jones23100
Andrei Iosivas1250
Trayveon Williams1120
Drew Sample0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.28
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83