Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+2.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.063
- 41.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.094
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.82CPOE+5.14
- 36.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.13Points / drive2.38
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 36/49 | 351 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 10 | 92 | 2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/27 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 29 | 127 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41