2021 · Week 1

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

24·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

47

Model margin

+2.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBengals
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.063
  • 41.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.094
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.82CPOE+5.14
  • 36.6%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.38
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. CIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3CIN @ MIN10–48MIN
2023 · W15MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2017 · W15CIN @ MIN7–34MIN
2013 · W16MIN @ CIN14–42CIN
2009 · W14CIN @ MIN10–30MIN
2005 · W2MIN @ CIN8–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CIN
MINQ1 15:00739Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:53511Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:2134Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:003-2Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:015-8Punt0–0
CINQ1 1:3135Punt0–0
MINQ2 15:0016101Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 6:391049Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 1:47411Punt7–7
CINQ2 1:11475Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 0:35529Punt7–14
CINQ3 15:001175Touchdown7–21
MINQ3 9:15740Punt7–21
CINQ3 5:3149Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ3 3:15430Touchdown14–21
CINQ3 2:24640Field goal14–24
MINQ4 14:131170Touchdown21–24
CINQ4 9:23415Punt21–24
MINQ4 7:1842Punt21–24
CINQ4 4:52528Punt21–24
MINQ4 1:48760Field goal24–24
CINOT511Punt24–24
MINOT36Punt24–24
CINOT34Punt24–24
MINOT619Turnover24–24
CINOT546Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins36/4935120
Justin Jefferson1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook20613.01
Ameer Abdullah144.00
Alexander Mattison122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen910922
K.J. Osborn79760
Justin Jefferson59710
Dalvin Cook67430
Tyler Conklin44410
Ameer Abdullah22150
Dede Westbrook11110
Alexander Mattison1140
Chris Herndon0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow20/2726120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon291274.41
Samaje Perine5224.40
Joe Burrow122.00
Ja'Marr Chase1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase571011
Tee Higgins45581
C.J. Uzomah22350
Tyler Boyd34320
Joe Mixon44230
Samaje Perine1170
Mike Thomas1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41