2025 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

10·48

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+8.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapVikings
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.094
  • 46.4%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.115
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.062
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.28CPOE-2.84
  • 44.3%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.75
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · W1MIN @ CIN24–27CIN
2017 · W15CIN @ MIN7–34MIN
2013 · W16MIN @ CIN14–42CIN
2009 · W14CIN @ MIN10–30MIN
2005 · W2MIN @ CIN8–37CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIN
MINQ1 15:00644Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 12:5730Punt0–7
MINQ1 11:163-4Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:49523Opp touchdown0–14
CINQ1 6:083-7Punt0–14
MINQ1 3:4634Punt0–14
CINQ1 1:39714Punt0–14
MINQ2 13:48936Field goal0–17
CINQ2 9:20833Field goal3–17
MINQ2 4:4234Punt3–17
CINQ2 2:52314Opp touchdown3–24
CINQ2 1:47315Turnover3–24
MINQ2 1:21352Touchdown3–31
CINQ2 0:3315Turnover3–31
MINQ2 0:2048Field goal3–34
CINQ3 15:0033Punt3–34
MINQ3 12:421189Touchdown3–41
CINQ3 6:00524Turnover3–41
MINQ3 3:49668Touchdown3–48
CINQ3 0:17945Touchdown10–48
MINQ4 11:1231Punt10–48
CINQ4 10:133-4Punt10–48
MINQ4 7:57311Punt10–48
CINQ4 5:5836Punt10–48
MINQ4 3:41639End of half10–48

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning19/2714012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine4215.30
Tahj Brooks5173.40
Ja'Marr Chase199.00
Jake Browning133.00
Chase Brown1030.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase56500
Noah Fant55260
Drew Sample23201
Chase Brown45170
Tee Higgins12150
Mike Gesicki1360
Cam Grandy1160
Mitchell Tinsley0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz14/2017320
Max Brosmer2/42900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason161167.32
Zavier Scott8303.80
Cam Akers5193.80
Carson Wentz242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson57750
T.J. Hockenson56491
Jalen Nailor35370
Zavier Scott11200
Josh Oliver11121
Tai Felton1190
Adam Thielen0200
Cam Akers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.96