Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+8.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.094
- 46.4%Success rate43.3%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.115
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.28CPOE-2.84
- 44.3%Third-down rate32.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.75
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 19/27 | 140 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 10 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 14/20 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 2/4 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 16 | 116 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Zavier Scott | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.96