Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.085
- 42.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -0.82CPOE+5.77
- 41.6%Third-down rate45.4%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.31
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. MIN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 15/25 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 96 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/30 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Albert Young | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Berrian | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 9 | 39 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.56