Closing spread
DET -2
Total
33
Model margin
+2.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.102
- 38.7%Success rate38.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.090
- 7.2%Explosive rate5.7%
- 39.5%Third-down rate38.8%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.20
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:19 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:39 | 4 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 9:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 7:58 | 9 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 4:40 | 5 | 36 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 1:57 | 7 | 9 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 14:45 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| DET | Q2 12:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 11:11 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DET | Q2 8:14 | 10 | 24 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| BAL | Q2 3:34 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DET | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BAL | Q2 1:18 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 10–14 |
| DET | Q3 11:13 | 19 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| BAL | Q3 1:35 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DET | Q3 0:17 | 2 | 9 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| BAL | Q4 14:55 | 14 | 112 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| DET | Q4 8:59 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| BAL | Q4 7:05 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| DET | Q4 5:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–35 |
| BAL | Q4 3:23 | 17 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 17–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 20/37 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 10/23 | 97 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 77 | 77.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 26 | 58 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Artose Pinner | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06