2005 · Week 5

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

17·35

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2

Total

33

Model margin

+2.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapLions
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.102
  • 38.7%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.109
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.090
  • 7.2%Explosive rate5.7%
  • 39.5%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.20
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.020

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DET @ BAL38–30DET
2023 · W7DET @ BAL6–38BAL
2021 · W3BAL @ DET19–17BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2013 · W15BAL @ DET18–16BAL
2009 · W14DET @ BAL3–48BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright20/3723022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis19955.00
Chester Taylor9465.10
Anthony Wright2189.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington10/239712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson17777.01
Kevin Jones26582.22
Artose Pinner9323.61
Joey Harrington122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.06