Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.052
- 40.8%Success rate42.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.41CPOE-1.33
- 38.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/29 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Rudock | 3/5 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tion Green | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/36 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Javorius Allen | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.22