Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.004
- 36.3%Success rate43.1%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.142
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.63CPOE-3.33
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.33Points / drive1.75
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/38 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 12 | 69 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/34 | 235 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 14 | 98 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.27