2013 · Week 15

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

18·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapLions
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.004
  • 36.3%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.142
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.63CPOE-3.33
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.75
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DET @ BAL38–30DET
2023 · W7DET @ BAL6–38BAL
2021 · W3BAL @ DET19–17BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2009 · W14DET @ BAL3–48BAL
2005 · W5BAL @ DET17–35DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DET
DETQ1 15:00863Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:5739Punt0–7
DETQ1 8:45734Punt0–7
BALQ1 4:141476Field goal3–7
DETQ2 12:49511Punt3–7
BALQ2 9:4030Punt3–7
DETQ2 8:08311Punt3–7
BALQ2 6:21837Field goal6–7
DETQ2 2:32512Punt6–7
BALQ2 1:20756Field goal9–7
BALQ3 15:0036Punt9–7
DETQ3 13:21532Turnover9–7
BALQ3 10:40647Field goal12–7
DETQ3 8:001058Field goal12–10
BALQ3 1:49523Punt12–10
DETQ4 13:02530Punt12–10
BALQ4 10:5734Punt12–10
DETQ4 9:5538Turnover12–10
BALQ4 9:023-1Field goal15–10
DETQ4 8:061290Touchdown15–16
BALQ4 2:21629Field goal18–16
DETQ4 0:3810Turnover18–16
BALQ4 0:30119End of half18–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3822200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12564.70
Bernard Pierce7213.00
Joe Flacco2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones69800
Torrey Smith412690
Marlon Brown46310
Dennis Pitta24240
Ed Dickson33100
Ray Rice1480

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3423513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush17865.11
Joique Bell9242.70
Matthew Stafford294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson614980
Nate Burleson46510
Brandon Pettigrew22230
Joique Bell12230
Reggie Bush24150
Joseph Fauria11141
Theo Riddick1160
Kris Durham1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.27