Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.069
- 45.9%Success rate47.3%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.014EPA / rush+0.009
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.34CPOE+2.73
- 42.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.29Points / drive2.25
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 33/53 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 13 | 19 | 102 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/27 | 357 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 80 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 63 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05