2023 · Week 7

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

6·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapRavens
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.069
  • 45.9%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.014EPA / rush+0.009
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.34CPOE+2.73
  • 42.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.29Points / drive2.25
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DET @ BAL38–30DET
2021 · W3BAL @ DET19–17BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2013 · W15BAL @ DET18–16BAL
2009 · W14DET @ BAL3–48BAL
2005 · W5BAL @ DET17–35DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–BAL
BALQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 10:3730Punt0–7
BALQ1 8:571268Touchdown0–14
DETQ1 3:1136Punt0–14
BALQ1 1:519102Touchdown0–21
DETQ2 12:5437Punt0–21
BALQ2 10:41680Touchdown0–28
DETQ2 7:45727Turnover on downs0–28
BALQ2 4:50631Turnover0–28
DETQ2 2:131157Punt0–28
BALQ2 0:0500End of half0–28
DETQ3 15:001169Turnover on downs0–28
BALQ3 9:31494Touchdown0–35
DETQ3 7:25728Turnover0–35
BALQ3 4:47510Punt0–35
DETQ3 2:30862Touchdown6–35
BALQ4 13:59739Field goal6–38
DETQ4 9:301355Turnover on downs6–38
BALQ4 4:5435Punt6–38
DETQ4 3:08826End of half6–38

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff33/5328401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs11686.21
Craig Reynolds3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown13191020
Jahmyr Gibbs910580
Sam LaPorta67520
Josh Reynolds23430
Kalif Raymond22200
Craig Reynolds1190
Jameson Williams0600
Antoine Green0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/2735730
Tyler Huntley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards14644.61
Justice Hill44611.50
Lamar Jackson9364.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gus Edwards11800
Zay Flowers46750
Mark Andrews46632
Odell Beckham Jr.57490
Rashod Bateman23360
Patrick Ricard22310
Nelson Agholor11121
Keaton Mitchell1190
Justice Hill1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.05