Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.061
- 46.3%Success rate42.1%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.31CPOE-0.05
- 36.5%Third-down rate34.7%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.73
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/31 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/30 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.05