2021 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

19·17

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+1.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapLions
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.061
  • 46.3%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.123
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.31CPOE-0.05
  • 36.5%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.73
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DET @ BAL38–30DET
2023 · W7DET @ BAL6–38BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2013 · W15BAL @ DET18–16BAL
2009 · W14DET @ BAL3–48BAL
2005 · W5BAL @ DET17–35DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DET
DETQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:5735Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:473-8Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:15534Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 5:51423Punt0–0
BALQ1 2:28645Punt0–0
DETQ2 14:18410Punt0–0
BALQ2 12:26525Field goal3–0
DETQ2 10:05610Punt3–0
BALQ2 6:54875Touchdown10–0
DETQ2 3:1539Punt10–0
BALQ2 1:50532Punt10–0
DETQ2 0:27534End of half10–0
BALQ3 15:00653Field goal13–0
DETQ3 12:161175Touchdown13–7
BALQ3 5:21961Field goal16–7
DETQ3 0:411347Touchdown16–14
BALQ4 8:16530Turnover16–14
DETQ4 5:25862Field goal16–17
BALQ4 1:04527Field goal19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/3128711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson7588.30
Latavius Murray7284.00
Ty'Son Williams5224.40
Devonta Freeman382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews571090
Sammy Watkins47680
Marquise Brown37530
James Proche11290
Devin Duvernay23221
Josh Oliver1160
Ty'Son Williams0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3021700
D'Andre Swift0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14473.41
Jamaal Williams12423.51
Jared Goff144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond610680
D'Andre Swift77600
Darren Fells23350
Jamaal Williams22250
T.J. Hockenson22100
KhaDarel Hodge1190
Quintez Cephus1180
Amon-Ra St. Brown1120
Trinity Benson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.05