Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.037
- 45.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.038
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.64CPOE+2.86
- 39.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.54Points / drive2.30
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/28 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 151 | 12.6 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/27 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 6 | 91 | 2 |
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.63