2025 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

38·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapRavens
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.037
  • 45.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.038
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.64CPOE+2.86
  • 39.2%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.30
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7DET @ BAL6–38BAL
2021 · W3BAL @ DET19–17BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2013 · W15BAL @ DET18–16BAL
2009 · W14DET @ BAL3–48BAL
2005 · W5BAL @ DET17–35DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–BAL
DETQ1 15:001167Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:16675Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 5:4038Punt7–7
BALQ1 3:1637Punt7–7
DETQ1 1:431898Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 5:55831Turnover on downs14–7
DETQ2 1:2440Punt14–7
BALQ2 0:56533Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 0:24319Missed field goal14–14
BALQ3 15:001167Touchdown14–21
DETQ3 8:51760Touchdown21–21
BALQ3 5:1330Punt21–21
DETQ3 3:36796Touchdown28–21
BALQ4 14:55939Field goal28–24
DETQ4 9:4035Punt28–24
BALQ4 8:3110Turnover28–24
DETQ4 8:2644Field goal31–24
BALQ4 6:3531Punt31–24
DETQ4 4:24770Touchdown38–24
BALQ4 1:42765Touchdown38–30
DETQ4 0:2900End of half38–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/2820210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery1215112.62
Jahmyr Gibbs22673.02
Jared Goff461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown78771
Jameson Williams23430
Sam LaPorta44330
Jahmyr Gibbs56320
David Montgomery11130
Kalif Raymond1240
Isaac TeSlaa0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/2728830
Derrick Henry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry12504.21
Lamar Jackson7355.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews66912
Rashod Bateman57631
Justice Hill34450
Devontez Walker11340
Charlie Kolar23220
DeAndre Hopkins12130
Zay Flowers23130
Derrick Henry1170
Tylan Wallace0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.63