Closing spread
BAL -14
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play+0.058
- 39.2%Success rate44.3%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.144EPA / rush+0.031
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -6.85CPOE+2.29
- 35.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.11Points / drive1.99
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 16/34 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 12 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/20 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 2/3 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 13 | 166 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Jalen Parmele | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 6 | 94 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.69