2009 · Week 14

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Daunte Culpepper

3·48

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 36°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -14

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapRavens
  • -0.169EPA / play+0.058
  • 39.2%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.144EPA / rush+0.031
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -6.85CPOE+2.29
  • 35.8%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.11Points / drive1.99
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 49.9 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DET @ BAL38–30DET
2023 · W7DET @ BAL6–38BAL
2021 · W3BAL @ DET19–17BAL
2017 · W13DET @ BAL20–44BAL
2013 · W15BAL @ DET18–16BAL
2005 · W5BAL @ DET17–35DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–BAL
DETQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:02569Turnover0–0
DETQ1 10:391039Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 5:5534Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:1839Punt0–0
BALQ1 3:52755Field goal0–3
DETQ1 0:40532Punt0–3
BALQ2 13:13370Touchdown0–10
DETQ2 11:561469Field goal3–10
BALQ2 4:32469Touchdown3–17
DETQ2 3:323-5Turnover3–17
BALQ2 2:18548Field goal3–20
DETQ2 1:10312End of half3–20
BALQ3 15:001174Touchdown3–27
DETQ3 8:5031Punt3–27
BALQ3 7:24661Touchdown3–34
DETQ3 4:1634Punt3–34
BALQ3 3:08648Touchdown3–41
DETQ3 0:51921Turnover3–41
BALQ4 13:21615Punt3–41
DETQ4 9:37720Turnover on downs3–41
BALQ4 6:22323Touchdown3–48
DETQ4 5:0249Turnover on downs3–48
BALQ4 3:29413End of half3–48

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper16/3413502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith21693.30
Aaron Brown11212.00
Daunte Culpepper7111.60
Maurice Morris3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt34390
Calvin Johnson412370
Kevin Smith22190
Will Heller25160
Maurice Morris2290
Bryant Johnson1280
Dan Gronkowski1340

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco13/2023010
Troy Smith2/31000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice1316612.81
Willis McGahee12766.32
Jalen Parmele5173.40
Troy Smith2147.01
Joe Flacco122.00
Kelley Washington111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason56941
Ray Rice47530
Demetrius Williams24450
Todd Heap22380
Willis McGahee1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.69