Closing spread
IND -14
Total
47
Model margin
-2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.203
- 51.2%Success rate34.0%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 50.1%Third-down rate25.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 2.60Points / drive0.94
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/31 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jim Sorgi | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 9/23 | 74 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 99 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.35