2021 · Week 7

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

30·18

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge map49ers
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.6%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.174
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -2.41CPOE+1.73
  • 41.9%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.30
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16SF @ IND48–27SF
2017 · W5SF @ IND23–26IND
2013 · W3IND @ SF27–7IND
2009 · W8SF @ IND14–18IND
2005 · W5IND @ SF28–3IND
2001 · W11SF @ IND40–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–SF
SFQ1 15:00878Touchdown0–6
INDQ1 10:1212Turnover0–6
SFQ1 9:52412Field goal0–9
INDQ1 8:08675Touchdown7–9
SFQ1 5:15539Field goal7–12
INDQ1 2:27728Turnover7–12
SFQ2 14:5236Punt7–12
INDQ2 13:51518Punt7–12
SFQ2 11:2537Punt7–12
INDQ2 9:2233Punt7–12
SFQ2 7:3932Punt7–12
INDQ2 6:4234Punt7–12
SFQ2 4:3238Turnover7–12
INDQ2 3:0269Touchdown13–12
SFQ2 1:0022End of half13–12
INDQ3 15:00935Punt13–12
SFQ3 8:34728Turnover13–12
INDQ3 4:3845Touchdown20–12
SFQ3 3:4557Punt20–12
INDQ3 1:2446Punt20–12
SFQ4 14:18370Touchdown20–18
INDQ4 13:071064Field goal23–18
SFQ4 7:0037Turnover23–18
INDQ4 5:20639Touchdown30–18
SFQ4 2:49419Turnover30–18
INDQ4 1:5337Punt30–18
SFQ4 0:091-4End of half30–18

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2615020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor181075.91
Carson Wentz4235.81
Nyheim Hines8141.80
Marlon Mack341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman441051
Mo Alie-Cox33251
Zach Pascal36140
Keke Coutee1150
Jonathan Taylor3330
Jack Doyle0100
Ashton Dulin2400
Kylen Granson0100
Nyheim Hines13-20

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo16/2718112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell181075.91
Brandon Aiyuk133.00
JaMycal Hasty310.30
Jimmy Garoppolo200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.7111001
Charlie Woerner22300
Mohamed Sanu11160
JaMycal Hasty36150
Trent Sherfield1290
Brandon Aiyuk1160
Ross Dwelley1250
Jauan Jennings0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.69