Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.085
- 44.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.174
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- -2.41CPOE+1.73
- 41.9%Third-down rate40.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.35Points / drive2.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/26 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 4 | 105 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/27 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Charlie Woerner | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.69