2017 · Week 5

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brian Hoyer

23·26

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Colts wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapColts
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.107
  • 41.2%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.115
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -3.27CPOE-4.56
  • 39.5%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16SF @ IND48–27SF
2021 · W7IND @ SF30–18IND
2013 · W3IND @ SF27–7IND
2009 · W8SF @ IND14–18IND
2005 · W5IND @ SF28–3IND
2001 · W11SF @ IND40–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–IND
INDQ1 15:001046Field goal0–3
SFQ1 9:091180Field goal3–3
INDQ1 2:37611Punt3–3
SFQ2 14:4534Punt3–3
INDQ2 13:0230Punt3–3
SFQ2 12:3332Punt3–3
INDQ2 11:00520Punt3–3
SFQ2 7:49516Punt3–3
INDQ2 4:561072Field goal3–6
SFQ2 0:59550Field goal6–6
INDQ2 0:0200End of half6–6
SFQ3 15:003-2Punt6–6
INDQ3 13:03921Field goal6–9
SFQ3 7:4255Punt6–9
INDQ3 5:50565Touchdown6–16
SFQ3 3:171169Field goal9–16
INDQ4 13:39785Touchdown9–23
SFQ4 9:56579Touchdown16–23
INDQ4 8:00418Punt16–23
SFQ4 5:291494Touchdown23–23
INDQ4 0:2000End of half23–23
INDOT862Turnover23–23
SFOT75Punt23–23
INDOT749Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer29/4635320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida10494.90
Carlos Hyde8111.40
Raheem Mostert133.00
Brian Hoyer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin5111160
Pierre Garcon811940
George Kittle79831
Matt Breida35220
Carlos Hyde1170
Garrett Celek1160
Trent Taylor1260
Aldrick Robinson1150

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/3431401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack99110.11
Frank Gore14483.40
Jacoby Brissett8141.81
Robert Turbin461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton791770
Frank Gore34380
Donte Moncrief33320
Kamar Aiken27220
Brandon Williams33170
Robert Turbin22130
Darrell Daniels14130
Marlon Mack1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.48
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.03