Closing spread
SF -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.107
- 41.2%Success rate38.7%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.115
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- -3.27CPOE-4.56
- 39.5%Third-down rate38.0%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.75Points / drive1.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 29/46 | 353 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 5 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/34 | 314 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 9 | 91 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 9 | 177 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.03