2013 · Week 3

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

27·7

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge map49ers
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.034
  • 44.6%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.156
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -1.44CPOE-1.63
  • 37.8%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.99
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16SF @ IND48–27SF
2021 · W7IND @ SF30–18IND
2017 · W5SF @ IND23–26IND
2009 · W8SF @ IND14–18IND
2005 · W5IND @ SF28–3IND
2001 · W11SF @ IND40–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–SF
INDQ1 15:00856Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 11:2039Punt7–0
INDQ1 9:5138Punt7–0
SFQ1 8:47991Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 4:133-7Punt7–7
SFQ1 2:5336Punt7–7
INDQ1 1:33526Punt7–7
SFQ2 13:4138Punt7–7
INDQ2 11:48935Field goal10–7
SFQ2 7:00626Punt10–7
INDQ2 4:01834Punt10–7
SFQ2 0:2100End of half10–7
SFQ3 15:00519Punt10–7
INDQ3 11:54952Field goal13–7
SFQ3 6:46735Punt13–7
INDQ3 3:021059Missed field goal13–7
SFQ4 12:413-3Punt13–7
INDQ4 11:141366Touchdown20–7
SFQ4 4:133-3Turnover20–7
INDQ4 3:5138Touchdown27–7
SFQ4 2:551067Turnover27–7
INDQ4 0:3500End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck17/2615900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw19955.01
Trent Richardson13352.71
Donald Brown3258.30
Andrew Luck4246.01
Reggie Wayne155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrius Heyward-Bey55590
Reggie Wayne46580
Ahmad Bradshaw34160
T.Y. Hilton24130
Coby Fleener22130
Donald Brown0100
Trent Richardson0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2715001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore11827.50
Colin Kaepernick7202.90
Kendall Hunter4143.51
Anthony Dixon1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin58670
Garrett Celek12300
Frank Gore24210
Kyle Williams26120
Vance McDonald1360
Kendall Hunter1140
Marlon Moore0100
Quinton Patton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.19