Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.034
- 44.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- -1.44CPOE-1.63
- 37.8%Third-down rate37.8%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.99
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 17/26 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Trent Richardson | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/27 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19