Closing spread
IND -13
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.127
- 37.0%Success rate48.9%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.69CPOE+4.60
- 29.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.54Points / drive2.29
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/32 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/48 | 347 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1/1 | 22 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 12 | 20 | 147 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84