2009 · Week 8

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

14·18

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -13

Total

45

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Colts wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapColts
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.127
  • 37.0%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.69CPOE+4.60
  • 29.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.29
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16SF @ IND48–27SF
2021 · W7IND @ SF30–18IND
2017 · W5SF @ IND23–26IND
2013 · W3IND @ SF27–7IND
2005 · W5IND @ SF28–3IND
2001 · W11SF @ IND40–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–IND
SFQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:2338Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:02270Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 11:1638Punt7–0
SFQ1 9:323-4Punt7–0
INDQ1 7:561067Field goal7–3
SFQ1 3:16528Turnover7–3
INDQ1 1:07419Field goal7–6
SFQ2 14:5035Punt7–6
INDQ2 12:2938Punt7–6
SFQ2 10:30412Punt7–6
INDQ2 8:19415Punt7–6
SFQ2 6:22314Punt7–6
INDQ2 4:21618Punt7–6
SFQ2 1:44776Touchdown14–6
INDQ2 0:33348Field goal14–9
SFQ2 0:0100End of half14–9
INDQ3 15:001057Field goal14–12
SFQ3 9:34824Turnover14–12
INDQ3 5:1030Punt14–12
SFQ3 4:4533Punt14–12
INDQ3 3:03965Touchdown14–18
SFQ4 14:53841Punt14–18
INDQ4 11:17551Punt14–18
SFQ4 8:36719Punt14–18
INDQ4 5:451246End of half14–18

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3219811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13917.01
Alex Smith11010.00
Glen Coffee188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree69810
Isaac Bruce48510
Frank Gore56430
Vernon Davis35201
Josh Morgan1230
Glen Coffee0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4834700
Joseph Addai1/12210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai20623.10
Chad Simpson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne12201471
Dallas Clark810990
Austin Collie68660
Pierre Garcon47530
Joseph Addai2240
Hank Baskett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84