Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.005
- 45.1%Success rate45.6%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- 44.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.62
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:04 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 2:26 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:45 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 13:02 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 11:26 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 9:21 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 3:45 | 4 | 53 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| SF | Q2 1:57 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:57 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:23 | 3 | 19 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| IND | Q3 13:27 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| SF | Q3 10:56 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 20–21 |
| IND | Q3 8:58 | 7 | 42 | Missed field goal | 20–21 |
| SF | Q3 6:01 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 20–21 |
| IND | Q3 3:55 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 27–21 |
| SF | Q3 3:05 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 27–21 |
| IND | Q3 3:05 | 6 | 14 | Turnover | 27–21 |
| SF | Q3 0:14 | 2 | 40 | Touchdown | 33–21 |
| IND | Q4 14:53 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 33–21 |
| SF | Q4 11:56 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 33–21 |
| IND | Q4 9:59 | 8 | 16 | Turnover | 33–21 |
| SF | Q4 7:24 | 3 | 41 | Touchdown | 40–21 |
| IND | Q4 5:52 | 10 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 40–21 |
| SF | Q4 2:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 40–21 |
| IND | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 40–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/22 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 106 | 8.8 | 2 |
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 9 | 103 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/51 | 370 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 27 | 104 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Kevin McDougal | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 13 | 128 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 8 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38