Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.083
- 48.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.033EPA / rush+0.052
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +5.72CPOE+0.62
- 50.4%Third-down rate43.0%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.48Points / drive2.74
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/34 | 295 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 8 | 115 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 29 | 2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 23/35 | 277 | 2 | 1 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 4 | 86 | 2 |
| Josh Downs | 5 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Coleman Owen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.51