2025 · Week 16

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

48·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Colts wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapColts
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.083
  • 48.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.033EPA / rush+0.052
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +5.72CPOE+0.62
  • 50.4%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.74
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W7IND @ SF30–18IND
2017 · W5SF @ IND23–26IND
2013 · W3IND @ SF27–7IND
2009 · W8SF @ IND14–18IND
2005 · W5IND @ SF28–3IND
2001 · W11SF @ IND40–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–IND
INDQ1 15:001082Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:31669Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 7:1400Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 7:08526Touchdown14–7
INDQ1 4:331276Touchdown14–14
SFQ2 14:151069Touchdown21–14
INDQ2 9:3638Punt21–14
SFQ2 7:091172Field goal24–14
INDQ2 1:51728Field goal24–17
SFQ2 0:17114Missed field goal24–17
SFQ3 15:00864Touchdown31–17
INDQ3 10:58617Field goal31–20
SFQ3 8:16749Field goal34–20
INDQ3 4:021265Touchdown34–27
SFQ4 12:411070Touchdown41–27
INDQ4 7:373-15Punt41–27
SFQ4 6:20510Turnover41–27
INDQ4 4:37342Opp touchdown48–27
INDQ4 3:2649Turnover on downs48–27
SFQ4 1:5600End of half48–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy25/3429551

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey211175.60
Brian Robinson5204.00
Brock Purdy2115.50
Mac Jones3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle781151
Jauan Jennings56711
Christian McCaffrey68292
Kendrick Bourne35270
Demarcus Robinson22231
Skyy Moore11230
Jake Tonges1270
Brian Robinson0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers23/3527721
Riley Leonard0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16462.91
Tyler Goodson393.00
Josh Downs133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce44862
Josh Downs59650
Jonathan Taylor33330
Michael Pittman45320
Tyler Warren39300
Mo Alie-Cox22160
Andrew Ogletree12110
Ameer Abdullah1140
Coleman Owen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.51